Polymarket Clarity Act Passing Odds Drop to 19%, Voting Delay Again?

Tuesday started with quiet confidence on Wall Street and Capitol Hill. By afternoon, that confidence had cracked. The Clarity Act vote is set for today, Tuesday, Sept. 15, at 2:15 p.m. ET, and traders on Polymarket spent the last 24 hours pricing in a very different outcome than they did yesterday. The Polymarket Clarity Act odds for the bill becoming law in 2026 have fallen sharply, and the reasons trace straight back to a late fight over ethics rules and stablecoin policy. Key Takeaways Polymarket odds that the H.R.3633 bill gets signed into law in 2026 dropped from 35% yesterday to 19% today, a 16-point fall in one day. Bettors give a 55% chance that more than 50 senators vote yes today, but only a 32% chance that more than 60 senators do. Senator Elizabeth Warren plans to speak against the bill on the floor, arguing new ethics language still leaves major gaps. Polymarket Clarity Act Odds: What Is Happening Today? The Clarity Act vote today is one of the most watched crypto policy moments of the year, and Polymarket Clarity Act betting on the outcome has swung hard within a single trading day. The Polymarket listing titled "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026" shows the shift in real time as senators head toward the floor for a procedural vote this afternoon. This is not a slow, steady climb or fall. It is a sudden reversal, and it happened right as fresh reporting on ethics rules and stablecoin concerns hit crypto desks overnight. Clarity Act Odds Crash From 35% to 19% Yesterday, Polymarket data showed the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 climbing to 35%. Today, that number sits at 19%. Source: Official Website That is a 16-point crash in a single day, one of the sharpest single-day moves this market has seen on the bill. Traders who were leaning toward passage yesterday pulled back fast once new details about the ethics fight and stablecoin worries started circulating this morning. Polymarket Metric Yesterday Today Bill signed into law in 2026 35% 19% More than 50 senators vote yes Not tracked 55% More than 60 senators vote yes Not tracked 32% How Many Senators Will Vote for the Clarity Act? Vote counts matter just as much as the passage odds. Polymarket shows a 55% chance that more than 50 senators back the bill today. That number drops hard when the bar moves higher: only a 32% chance that more than 60 senators vote yes. Source: Official Site A simple majority looks possible. A stronger, filibuster-proof majority looks far less likely, and that gap between 50 and 60 is exactly what traders are watching. Why Did Sentiment Flip Overnight? Yesterday brought real optimism.