Filecoin Price Drops 12% as a 75% Supply Cut Nears

FIL led the day’s losers with a 12% drop, pulling back to Fibonacci support near $0.89. Filecoin’s Protocol Labs and Foundation vesting ends on October 15, closing the network’s largest source of new FIL. Gross new issuance falls from roughly 88 million FIL a year to about 22 million, a cut of around 75%. The supply cut does not make FIL deflationary on its own; burns and collateral locking decide the net direction. Filecoin was the weakest performer among large-cap crypto assets on the day, according to CMC data, with FIL down more than 12% over 24 hours to around $0.886 and a market capitalisation of $733.8 million. The sell-off runs against the calendar. In four weeks, on October 15, the vesting schedules for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation end, removing the network’s largest source of new FIL and cutting gross issuance by roughly 75%. The weekly move stayed positive at about 4.6%, so the drop reads as a pullback inside a recent advance rather than a broken trend. FIL sheds 12% in a day but holds its weekly gains The longer trend has not turned over. The 200-period EMA, a slow average that maps the multi-week direction, sits down at $0.78, well beneath price, which keeps the broader structure pointed up. The shorter averages are where the caution shows. The 12 EMA at $0.912 is still above the 26 EMA at $0.886, so short-term momentum remains technically positive, but the 12 EMA has rolled over and price has slipped below it. If the 12 EMA crosses under the 26 EMA, that flips the short-term reading to bearish, since a faster average dropping beneath a slower one is read as momentum turning down. FIL holds the 0.382 Fibonacci support near $0.89. Chart analysis by Alexander Stefanov. Source: TradingView. The $0.89 line keeping the pullback intact LevelPriceRole0.236 Fibonacci$0.9475Resistance12 EMA$0.912Resistance26 EMA spot$0.886Pivot0.382 Fibonacci$0.890Support0.5 Fibonacci$0.8438Support0.618 Fib / 200 EMA$0.7975 / $0.78Major support The pullback stopped around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $0.89. That level marks where FIL has given back a little under 40% of the advance measured from the $0.6474 low, and it overlaps with roughly half of the sharp spike toward $1.04 earlier in the week. Holding it keeps the recovery structure alive. A clean break below opens the 0.5 level at $0.844 and then the $0.80 zone, where the 0.618 retracement and the 200 EMA sit almost on top of each other and form the firmer floor. The 14-period RSI reads about 50, back to neutral after pushing above 80 during the spike. A neutral RSI means the earlier overbought condition has fully reset, so momentum no longer looks stretched and leaves room to move either way.