Polymarket Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 81%

The supplied headline reports Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike jumping to 81%, with the no-change outcome falling to 18%, ahead of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting. Those exact paired figures remain unverified against a timestamped market snapshot, and prediction-market odds are not an announced Federal Reserve decision. Polymarket Fed Rate Hike Odds Reach 81% The reported 81% hike probability and 18% no-change figure originate from the headline, not from a directly observed live market tick. A September 11, 2026 report placed the hike probability at 81% after CPI, citing MarketWatch, while describing no change as about 20% rather than 18%, per crypto.news reporting. For related coverage, see Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000; Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise. Directly fetched at research time on September 12, 2026, the Polymarket September contract displayed 79% for a 25-basis-point increase and 20% for no change, not the headline's 81%/18% pair. The prior probability and observation timestamp behind the headline snapshot were not supplied, so the size and speed of any move cannot be quantified. For related coverage, see Kalshi and Polymarket Volume Falls 15% in August. September Fed decision: 25 bps hike 79% Polymarket displayed a 79% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at research time on September 12, 2026. This is a market expectation, not an announced Federal Reserve decision, and does not verify the historical 81% headline reading. Source: Polymarket. Reported 25 bps hike odds: 81% (per the supplied headline; live reading was 79% on September 12). Reported no-change odds: 18% (per the supplied headline; live reading was 20% on September 12). Caveat: Prediction-market odds express market pricing and do not confirm a Federal Reserve decision. The distinction matters because a related market on Fed policy recently showed a hold outcome favored, as covered when hold odds hit 75% across Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad. The current headline points to the opposite skew, though the exact snapshot is not authenticated. For related coverage, see Spot XRP ETF Performance: Is XRP Leading the Crypto Rebound?. What the 25 Basis Point Hike Outcome Means A 25 basis point increase equals a 0.25 percentage point move in the policy rate, not a 25% increase. The no-change outcome means holding the federal funds target range steady at its current level. The current range stands at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, set when the FOMC held rates on July 29, 2026, according to the July policy statement. That decision passed on a 9–3 vote, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan preferring a quarter-point increase. The July statement noted inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, partly reflecting supply shocks including energy. That 2 percent goal applies to inflation broadly, not specifically to headline CPI.