Token Unlock Math: What Comes Free at Capricorn (APR) on October 23

On October 23, 2026, the one-year lock-up for early investors and core developers at Capricorn Tech comes to an end. According to the official project documentation, 92.8 million APR become free on that day, which is 33.4 percent of today's circulating supply. According to the emissions model of the data provider DefiLlama, the figure for the same day is around 149.7 million APR, and therefore almost 54 percent. Both numbers are publicly available, both refer to the same date, and both cannot be right at once. You will meet exactly this situation at almost every larger token unlock. This article takes the Capricorn case as an exercise and shows you step by step how to work out the quantity being released from a vesting plan yourself, how to test two contradictory calendars against each other, and how to tell which of the two comes closer to the truth. At the end there is a calculation you can run in exactly the same way for any other project. What is a token unlock and why does it change supply? A token unlock is the point in time, set by contract or by smart contract, at which previously locked tokens become available to their recipients and can be sold, transferred or deployed for the first time. Before that date the tokens already exist, but they are not in circulation and therefore appear in neither the circulating supply nor the market capitalisation. The difference is not a bookkeeping question. The circulating supply is the number of tokens that are actually freely tradable, and it is the denominator in almost every metric you read about a coin. When an additional third of that quantity becomes available on a single day, the balance between supply and demand shifts measurably, regardless of whether the recipients actually sell. How strongly depends on who receives the tokens, at what cost base they hold them and how deep the order books of the trading venues are. The second metric you need for this is the fully diluted valuation, usually abbreviated to FDV: the current price multiplied by the maximum token supply, that is, the value of the project on the assumption that every token ever envisaged were already in circulation. At Capricorn, September 4, 2026 sets a market capitalisation of around 73.1 million US dollars against a fully diluted valuation of around 263.0 million US dollars. That gap is nothing other than the sum of all future unlocks, expressed in money. What the schedule says for Capricorn (APR) on October 23, 2026 Capricorn Tech, known as aPriori until the rebrand, operates a coordination layer for order flow and liquid staking on the Monad blockchain.